Between November 3 and 11 of last month, November 2025, 42 forecasters from were surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics about their projections for the economic growth of the United States. The average response indicated that a 2% growth is expected due to increased consumer spending and business investment. However, the main impacts on the economy will come from tariff effects and strict immigration legislation. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4% at the beginning of 2026 and will remain at that level throughout the year.
National Association for Business Economics survey
“U.S. economic growth will increase slightly next year, but employment gains will continue to be slow, and the Federal Reserve will slow down rate cuts.” This has been the conclusion from the survey conducted by the National Association for Business Economics among 42 professional forecasters. The survey was conducted between November 3 and 11, 2025, and the results are not entirely encouraging.
The average of the forecasts reveals that growth is expected to be 2%. This figure contrasts with the 1.8% obtained in an October survey and the 1.3% estimated in June. Although personal spending and business investment are expected to drive higher growth, it is estimated that the limit on growth of a quarter percentage point or more will be due to import taxes imposed by the Trump administration. According to the survey, “Respondents cite ‘tariff impacts’ as the biggest downside risk to U.S. economic prospects, taking into account both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential impact”.
What other factors influence growth?
Higher productivity would be a factor that drives growth, but the strict enforcement of immigration policies has become a depressing factor for growth. October surveys estimated an inflation figure of 3%, but it is now estimated to be 2.9%. Tariffs are considered responsible for anywhere from a quarter of a percentage point to almost three-quarters of a percentage point, causing inflation to reach lows of just 2.6% in 2026.
What will happen with employment?
The year will close with rather modest employment growth figures according to the usual numbers: around 64,000 per month, which is well below recent standards. It is expected that by early 2026 there will be an increase in the unemployment rate, reaching 4.5%, which will remain steady throughout the year. According to Reuters, “With sticky inflation and only a slight rise in unemployment, the Fed is seen approving a quarter-point interest rate cut in December, but then reducing rates by only another half point next year, approaching what is considered an approximately neutral rate for monetary policy”.
Frequently asked questions
What unemployment rate is expected for 2026?
It is expected that by early 2026 there will be an increase in the unemployment rate, reaching 4.5%, which will remain steady throughout the year.
Who carried out this survey?
The National Association for Business Economics.