With climate change causing havoc on the world, it is now harder to predict when natural disasters like Hurricanes is getting a lot harder, as seasons are blending together more and more and the devastation is getting even greater than before. This is especially troubling in the Atlantic hurricane corridor, which includes several of the US States. They are now seeing devastation like never before and with very little warning, and some are even considering changing the official start of Hurricane season to an earlier date to try to prevent as much devastation as possible.
Hurricane and tropical storm season usually run from June to November, as the Gulf of Mexico heats us because of the summer sun, the warm water heats up the air and makes it rise, and all these hot moist conditions are the perfect environment for tropical storms. But when combined with the spinning of the air due to the Coriolis effect and the low pressure-center in the spin, these tropical storms can easily become hurricanes, and the temperatures in this area mean that the amount of water and pressure can be huge.
Why would moving the start of Hurricane season to may work or not
The last few years have been full of anomalies, while usually hurricanes do not start to appear until later in the season, 2024 brought Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 storm on record to form in the Atlantic. Beryl caused 73 deaths and over $8.3 billion in damages, which was really unexpected especially as early in the season as it was.
But not everything that year was atypical, the first storm recorded in 2024 was Tropical Storm Alberto and it happened on June 19, which is not unusual, if a bit early still. The problem is that increasingly more and more storms are occurring during the month of May, which is giving many reason for concern. Just over the past 10 years there have been several storms that have occurred during the month of May:
- Tropical Storm Ana – May 22-24, 2021
- Tropical Storm Bertha – May 27-28, 2020
- Tropical Storm Arthur – May 16-19, 2020
- Tropical Storm Andrea – May 20-21, 2019
- Tropical Storm Alberto – May 25-31, 2017.
Hurricanes are rarer in May, with the last recorded incident being in 1970, when Hurricane Alma reached Category 1 status, so being hasty may not be the solution. In fact, even though some are advocating for the moving forward of the season, many believe that the slight increase in storms that we have seen in May is not a worthy indicator for now.
This is despite a 2022 study which focused on the prevalence of early storms in the Atlantic Basin finding that warmer ocean temperatures had been causing an increase in tropical storms and severity of hurricanes since 1990.
But still it has been decided that the benefits of moving up the start date would be almost negligible, as it would only catch 1 percent more activity. Since the main difference between moving up the date or not would be in communication to the public, the change would not impact the agencies that track and monitor storms, as these are operational all year round and are mandated to be ready to respond to off-season storms with the same celerity as “in season” storms.
Regardless of when the official storm and hurricane season starts, it pays to be prepared and to keep an eye for unexpected rises in water temperatures. Do not just assume that because it is early in the season that a storm will not happen and keep supplied at hand just in case.