With summer coming up again and temperatures starting to rise, the usual concerns are coming up, like excess heat putting such a strain on the grid that massive blackouts happen. But while these concerns usually come up around the start of the summer, the fact that climate change has made temperatures rise earlier and faster means that we are now thinking about it before the summer has even started.
The problem is not just limited to the hottest areas of the United States, as many people would believe, but it is also across the border in Canada, and now the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has published new research which indicates that half of the region will experience power shortfalls. However it is true that some areas will be impacted more than others, be it because the temperatures are higher and so is the strain on the grid, or because the grid is older and unable to keep up with the demand.
The areas that will be impacted by the blackouts the most
While blackouts have been common for decades, the reality is that nowadays there are a lot more amenities in our homes that draw power and that do not stop when it comes to the summer months and ACs are added to the mix. For example, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) as well as heat pumps, the growth of data centers powered by AI technologies and the fact that many operations that were previously sustained by fossil fuel are now taking the greener route and becoming electrified.
While the technology that we use nowadays is as efficient as we can make it and comparatively draws a lot less power than it did before, there is more of it and so the problem gets compounded. So much so that according to the NERC’s director the growth in demand for electricity is unlike nothing that has ever been seen before.
And there is very little technology can do at this stage, as coal and gas-fired power plants are retiring, wind, solar, and batteries are not being developed quickly enough to replace these power plants, which will make disappear about eight gigawatts of this energy capacity will disappear within the next decade. And depending on clean energy is not even the best answer for now, as it depends on external circumstances like the weather.
Experts believe that the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) will be the first one to lose power. MISO includes the Midwest as well as central parts of the U.S and has been reliant on coal-fired generation power for a long time, which is disappearing and not being replaced fast enough, so it will likely be the first region to experience problems.
The other areas that are at risk from blackouts are Texas, British Columbia & Manitoba (Canada) and New England, but most of the country could be at risk and gas-fired generators will still play a critical role in keeping essential services running.
We would like to tell you that there are many things you can do to avoid a blackout, and while having your house be as off the grid as possible with solar panels and a generator for emergencies is a good idea, the changes need to be systemic for this to not happen. Individual action is just not enough.
The first thing that need to happen is a systemic modernization of the grid, as transporting renewable energy from where it is generated to where it is used is not always efficient. The second thing is a massive investment in making renewable energy reliable and more widespread to cover the shortfall from fossil fuels, and the third thing is to improve the backup systems and not have them depend on fossil fuel generators.