In the United States, many citizens rely on Social Security for their retirement. In the same vein, people with disabilities also rely on Social Security. Thus, the Social Security Administration ensures that these groups can continue with their economic level to continue their lives, through the CLA. Through the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, they perform a calculation to make payments to Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries and The Senior Citizens League. Below, Mary Johson also presents the increases that would have to be made around the tariffs, promoted by Donald Trump. Read on for all the details on the first estimates of the COLA increase for payments heading into next year 2026.
Unemployment analysis of the economy shows reality
The Social Security Administration (SSA) has begun analyzing the economy’s performance throughout the year in order to calculate the adjustment it is making to the money it gives to its beneficiaries, primarily retired and disabled individuals, by 2026.
Many of these beneficiaries have Social Security payments as their primary income: retired workers, survivors, and individuals with disabilities who are covered by Supplemental Security Income (SSI) or Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI).
To guarantee the resources they receive, SSA makes an estimate to prevent them from losing purchasing power, known as a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA).
How is the COLA calculated and when is the increase in Social Security payments announced?
The estimates for the COLA adjustment use the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) data corresponding to the third quarter of each year, with that of the previous year, the percentage difference determines how much the increase in payments amounts to.
This data is usually made official during the month of October of each year. Once the data for the third quarter of the year is known, it is applied from the beginning of the new year, in January. However, estimates have already begun.
COLA increase to match that of 2025
According to projections by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors’ organizations, the COLA increase for 2026 is likely to be 2.5%, i.e., the COLA increase would be the same as in 2025.
Given these cases, it must be exposed whether the COLA is really being efficient or its efficiency as a tool to safeguard American retirees is weakening. In what situation will the next generations also be able to establish their economic future if the economic management makes the quality of life more and more difficult.
How much do SSI and SSDI recipients currently receive?
Currently, the payment for an individual retiree is $1,976 and $3,089 for couples filing jointly. While Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients receive a maximum of $967 if they are individuals and $1,450 for couples.
If the COLA increase of 2.5% is confirmed, for payments in 2026. Thus, for individual retirees it would be about $2,025 per month, and for couples it would be $3,166 per month. On the other hand, for those who are SSI recipients, it would be $991 per month for individuals and $1,486 per month for couples.
While any increase seems attractive, the COLA increase in 2025 (2.5%) was the lowest figure in the last 3 years. These payments are slightly lower than those of other social benefits, as they are based on the need of the beneficiary and not on the social security contribution.
Mary Johnson’s predictions expose the adjustment that would have to be made
As if that were not enough, analysts such as Mary Johnson predict that the adjustment would even be 2.4%, a new four-year low. However, this figure is closer to 2.5% because of the impact caused by the tariff policy implemented by Donald Trump’s administration.