With the Mega Millions jackpot now standing at $900 million, many Americans fantasize about how their lives would be different if they were to win.
Millions of players will select their numbers in the hopes of hitting the winning combination in the upcoming draw on November 11. A crucial fact, though, lies beneath all the excitement: the odds of winning the top prize are “1 in more than 300 million.” Which means that is nearly impossible.
Why it’s so difficult to win and how it’s played
Each player selects six numbers to play Mega Millions: one number from 1 to 25: the golden ball (also called the Mega Ball number) and five numbers from 1 to 70: the white balls. All five white numbers and the Mega Ball number have to match for you to win the jackpot. Because of this, the odds of winning the jackpot are extremely low—just one in over 300 million.
The winner of the top prize in the November 11 drawing can choose to receive the whole amount in yearly payments or a smaller lump sum, in this case $415.3 million, in one payment. The math stays the same even though the total is enormous: even if you buy many of the tickets, your chances are still extremely low.
A lot of people choose numbers associated with important dates, like birthdays. This is where the opinions of experts are useful. Harvard University statistics professor Mark Glickman advises staying away from these trends and going with random combinations instead. “No birthdays that have special meaning to you because other people are likely to make those same picks,” he told CBS News, in his own words.
Most frequent numbers and possible strategies
Some numbers have been more commonly seen than others when examining the history of drawings from 1996 to 2023. The most common white ball numbers are 31, 17, 46, 20, and 10. The most frequently observed Mega Ball numbers are 9, 15, 3, 10, and 1. Some people choose to play the “hot numbers” that have come up more frequently as a result of these statistics.
That does not, however, imply that those numbers will be more likely in the next draw. Regardless of past results, the odds of winning are the same for every combination. For this reason, it still makes sense to follow Mark Glickman’s advice.
Since matching this golden ball is one of the most likely ways to win back at least some money, even if it’s a small prize, some players purchase multiple tickets with just the Mega Ball number changed. Even so, the upgrade is limited because it costs a lot more to raise your chances even a little, and the chances of winning a prize that could change your life are still very unlikely.
For a lot of people who are struggling financially, living on SSA checks, SNAP or counting pennies at the end of the month, winning the U.S. lottery is a lucky break.
Playing with your feet on the ground
Many people feel hopeful when they consider the $900 million pot, major events like the November 11 drawing, and the popularity of games like Powerball and Mega Millions. It’s common to imagine what you will do in the event of a win. However, the odds of winning the jackpot are nearly zero due to the game’s very design.
The advice given by experts like Harvard University’s Mark Glickman (and his warnings) in media outlets like CBS News can be summed like this: choose random numbers, stay away from common patterns like birthdays, and most importantly, do it for fun, don’t expect your ticket to be a miracle cure.
Because the truth is that it’s still a form of gambling, which can be addictive, and “the probability of obtaining a life-changing sum of money is practically impossible.”