Asteroids are very common in the universe and even around Earth. There are plenty of Asteroid belts we are aware of and we are often hit by one, although we do not notice most of them thanks to the Earths atmosphere breaking them down. But this time around the Asteroid in question might not be coming for us, it might be coming for the Moon, and given how close this celestial body is to us, it could prove to be an invaluable opportunity to observe its impact with a telescope and figure out things like if it would impact the Moons orbit, even if temporarily.
When Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered, initial calculations from astronomers indicated a very worrying thing, and that is that it might hit Earth in December 2032. These calculations can be quite scary, because even though the odds of that happening were calculated at 3.1 percent, depending on the size and composition of the asteroid the damage could be quite impressive. Estimates show that the Asteroid is roughly the size of the one that crashed through a huge portion of the Siberian forest in 1908 during the Tunguska event, and that was a rock between 53 and 67 meters across, which is definitely big enough to cause serious damage if it were to hit the planet.
Luckily for us, these calculations were soon proven to be off as more data came in and scientists determined the risk to Earth to be closer to cero, which was a huge relief. But the Moon was not so lucky, as the new data pointed to the Asteroid heading straight to it.
The Asteroid that might make impact with the Moon
That may be a bit dramatic, after all the calculations that are made cannot accurately predict the path of the Asteroid with 100% certainty until it is closer and its path clearer, but once Earth was eliminated as a possible target for the Asteroid the Moon took its place with odds that started at 3.8 percent, and now those odds have just ticked upward.
This is thanks to data collected from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, which was processed in May 2025 by a team of astronomers led by Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab. The new data puts the new estimate at a 4.3 percent chance the Asteroid could hit the Moon.
Because the Moon is not inhabited, there is no way that the impact of an Asteroid would be catastrophic in any way. The Moon’s orbit would not wobble, and it definitely would not shatter or anything like that, it is big enough that it could take the impact quite easily and without any adverse consequences, but it would still be impressive and it would still affect its orography, as the impact would likely create a new crater that we would get to see be formed in real time.
An impact as big as this one so close to Earth would allow scientists to get all kinds of new insights into impact dynamics, crater formation, and the surface material of the Moon.
But the Asteroid still has a long way to go until it reaches the Earth, it has been known to make a pass every four years, each time a bit closer, and the next time we will be able to see it will be December 2028, which will also be a great opportunity to get a better look and figure out more precisely where it is headed by 2032.
Any more data that we can acquire will help us plot the path of the Asteroid much more accurately and be a lot more prepared for the day that it makes impact with the Moon, if that is what ends up happening.