China and the United States are having a new space war, more quiet and with more players than in the Cold War. China wants to take people to the moon before 2030 and put up a lunar base with a little nuclear reactor for 2035. Meanwhile, their station in Tiangong is already in orbit and could take the ISS‘s place once this one retires.
In the states, NASA and SpaceX are pushing strong, but they’re also dragging delays and budget debts. The Redshift report says that China is accelerating with all they can: rockets like Long March 10, the Chang’e 7 mission, plans to get to Mars, and a satellite grid that wants to compete with Starlink. Furthermore, Pekin is promoting agreements around the world with his Space Silk Route. Behind this “boom,” there’s a key change: since 2014, the government opened the sector to private companies; today, giants like CASC are forming an ecosystem that keeps on growing.
What’s happening with China
In ten years, China passed from being a 100% state model to a “mixed team”: private companies, universities, and regions working together with CASC. Only in 2024 the investment in Chinese private commercial space companies reach 2,860 million dollars, which is a lot more than in 2016. Well, this is the result of this: reusable rockets, mega-constellation satellites, probes, and infrastructure.
But the crown is put on Tiangong, a space station that has worked permanently since 2023. With the ISS getting to the end of its cycle around 2030 and without a direct replacement from NASA, Tiangong could become the main laboratory in low orbit. China is also inviting other countries that are not always in the U.S. bloc to be a part of it.
But their higher jump is still in the making with the heavy rocket Long March 10, the Chang’e 7 mission to explore moon resources further into the future, and building a lunar base with nuclear energy. Why? Because this will work as a bridge to Mars.
Is the U.S. losing strength in space?
The U.S. is still very strong, and in part, thanks to SpaceX, which is holding a big part of the launching schedule. But the Redshift report alerts that if you take SpaceX out of the equation, China would be launching a lot more. And if there’s not an organized transition from the ISS to new private stations, that prestigious place could be held by the Asian bloc.
China is taking a different direction too, not only competing but also making alliances. With the Space Silk Route, it has closed more than 80 projects like satellites, terrestrial stations, and technical training in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Many of which include credits and long term contracts. On one side, it creates a dependency on Asian technical solutions around the world, but on the other side, it pushes ambitious technology: new-generation telescopes, a possible solar plant in orbit to send energy to Earth, and artificial photosynthesis experiments in microgravity to produce oxygen and fuel in space. And of course, a constellation that competes with Starlink.
It sounds pretty exciting for science, but at the same time, is a big message. If the U.S. wants to keep being the leader, they need to get inspired by what China is doing: stable investments, rules, and collaborating with more than only one private company, because pulling from one company might not be enough, even if it is doing a great job.
Where’s science heading to ?
China has 6 active spaceports and a pretty busy agenda with people going to the moon before 2030, a lunar base before 2035, and a fixed look at Mars. NASA is keeping Artemis, but with some delays and budget tensions.
Competing or collaborating, there’s only one universe, and we’re all sharing it; so in this game, every piece is important.