Coffee, better known as the nectar of gods, life’s elixir, and now the latest casualty of the tariff war that President Trump has started with the rest of the world. Despite America’s vastness, one of the things it does not produce and likely never has is coffee, as most suitable climates and conditions to produce this delicacy are found abroad.
Of course here is some locally sourced specialty coffee that can be found, but supply is nowhere near enough to meet demand, and since tastes run so varied and it is such a stapple of many households, importing it from countries that produce it in mass quantities makes more sense than to try to expand local production. Or it did until now.
The 10% blanket tariff that Trump has established on most imported goods (recently tech imports have been excluded form this regime) will likely up the process of a product that is already not cheap if it is any good. And we all know that roasters and coffee shops cannot afford to absorb the increase. Starbucks might be able to, but small independent businesses depend on reasonable prices on fair trade coffee to make a delicious brew that also does not break the bank.
Why coffee drinkers should expect higher prices
The numbers do not lie, approximately 99 percent of the coffee consumed in the US is imported from abroad, and although there are a few specialty roasters focused on locally grown product, they could never get enough yield and at a low enough price to compete with even the tariffed import beans. Data from the National Coffee Association indicates that nearly all coffee consumed is sourced from abroad, with imports consisting mainly of unroasted beans. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service identified Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, and Honduras as the leading exporters for the 2023/24 period, supplying 32%, 20%, 8%, and 7% of imports, respectively.
While coffee is not the only product that will be subject to the price increases, it is the most basic daily consumable that many rely on that will affect everyone the same. Although people drink different types, both specialty and regular will be subjected to similar tariffs, for once affecting all socioeconomic groups at the same time and at the same rate (10% of regular coffee in this case will hurt the same as 10% on specialty which is already quite expensive to begin with).
Before reciprocal tariffs targeting key coffee exporters like Vietnam were reconsidered, Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova Pte, discussed the potential impact of the new trade measures with Bloomberg. She noted that the duties were expected to intensify the already heightened volatility in the coffee market and deepen ongoing supply constraints.
This is because, even before the tariffs, coffee prices had already been rising, driven by reduced fertilizer application in Colombia and prolonged drought conditions in Brazil, both of which had disrupted production through 2023 and into 2024 and are some of the world’s biggest producers.
On the consumer end, Jorge Prudencio, owner of Bread Bite Bakery in Washington, D.C., shared with the BBC that his suppliers had already warned of higher costs in upcoming shipments, signaling an inevitable price hike for customers.
None of this would be a problem if it were not for the fact that the US is the world’s second-largest coffee importer, right behind China, and as they have no real means to increase production other than in Puerto Rico and Hawaii (where some local producers are located) Americans will either be stuck paying the increase in price or going back to less appealing alternatives like chicory.