Millions of people could be receiving more money that they thought from the refunds in their declarations. According to the IRS, many of the discounts approved in the fiscal package promoted by Donald Trump—the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—will make that part of the taxpayers receive higher 2026 refunds, similar to the “stimulus check.”
Economist David Kelly, chief strategist of JPMorgan Asset Management, explained that the government is not adjusting this year’s withholdings but it will apply tax cuts with retroactive effect from January 1, 2025. What does this mean? Throughout the year, people will be paying as usual, but when the declaration in 2026 would be presented, many will be receiving a bigger refund. Kelly calculates that the average refund could go up from $3.186 to $3.743. Although, he also warns that not everyone will have the same benefit and that extra money could push inflation even more in the United States.
At the same time, the import tariffs increase and changes in U.S. tax policy generate opposite effects depending on the level of income. Tax Foundation and Yale Budget Lab point out that the combinations of budget cuts and tariff doesn’t impact everybody the same way, and maybe that mix will become the center of the debate in the following months.
Who wins with the changes and how do they work
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act include a lot of measures, but not all of them benefit all Americans. A big part are discounts on the income on which you pay taxes. For example: a special deduction of $6,000 is created for people over 65 years old, which is then reduced when the income exceeds a certain limit.
It also introduce a Tip Deduction: workers and self-employed can deduct from their rent the tips declared between 2025 and 2028, up to $25,000 per year; but there are limits according to their income level.
In addition to this, the Child Tax Credit is going raising from $2.000 to $2.200 per child for the 2025 fiscal year, with one refundable part.
The higher your tax rate is, the bigger is the deduction. But this also means that benefit will be bigger for those who already pay more, while families with less income will be getting a smaller part of the price. Kelly compares the refund increase with a new round of stimulus checks: when the that money arrives in 2026, a lot of people might spend it fast, which can increase the consumption… and also the pressure on prices.
Higher rates and more expensive prices
The same administration that pushes the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has increased Import Tariffs on products from abroad, and official data of the U.S. Department of the Treasury shows a big increase in the collection for tariffs throughout 2025. In theory, that’s paid by the imported companies, but as Kelly explains, in the end, it all shows un in the final price of the product. Shops and brands are not going to make it disappear, they just add it to what the customer pays.
According to Yale Budget Lab estimations, this import tariffs could cost up to $2.400 a year to American families. And according to Tax Foundation, this impact if going to hit stronger households with less income, because they have to use nearly all their money in basics things like foo, clothing or transport.
More money now, more risks later
Is it good signs or alert signs? The combinations of refunds and deductions is a very mixed scenario, in one side is a relief, but in the other it puts more pressure.
After what the expert in economy say, the take out is to be preventive; yes, you might get a refund, but costs are not getting any less expensive with the U.S. inflation. Before spending that refund, calculate how much is really worth it.